Technology has fundamentally changed the music business. Online music services, iPods, affordable production methods, social media and more have made this industry far different in the past year alone for both consumers and the people who make music. What does the future hold as we continue our musical journey into the high tech future? Here’s a series of posts about changes affecting the entire industry and where things may go in the near future.
The Death of Physical Media: The compact disc hit the market in the early 80s. It’s hard to believe it’s been 30 years. Unlike how discs replaced records in a similar lifespan, there is no physical media emerging right now that will overtake CDs. This is because physical media is dead. All physical media will vanish as going to a store and picking up an actual copy of a release becomes a quaint reminder of the old days. Legal digital downloads have become far too cheap and easy just as smartphones, iPods and MP3 have grown in popularity, creating a lethal combination for physical media.
The Rise of Services: Just as digital file formats have killed off the CD, digital content services will slowly mark the death of the concept of downloading tracks. Cloud services are the big thing in the business world, especially “software as a service” models where companies rent access to applications online instead of installing software. We are simply becoming more used to the idea of renting instead of buying, especially for convenience. Streaming services like Spotify and Pandora go hand in hand with this trend as the future will see consumers just listening to tracks they want to hear on demand instead of going through the hassle of buying individual songs.
Lower Barriers to Entry: Independent musicians today have it good. In the past, a musician had to buy equipment, get a following and then hope to be noticed by a record label willing to pay for studio time and distribution. These barriers to entry to the music industry are now gone. Any musician with a little bit of money and a decent computer can build a digital audio workstation and then distribute tracks to iTunes, Amazon, Spotify and more using any number of affordable online distribution services. Of course, there’s a downside…
It’s Getting Harder to Really Break In: There’s a flip side to these technological advancements. It may be easier than ever for a musician to get their sound to consumers, but that means more competition. Indy musicians will have to work even harder to get noticed among the multitude of folks with a computer, a few dollars and a dream. They will also face resistance from established acts and labels, jealously guarding their share of the market in an industry where it’s getting harder to make a profit.
Even More Gigs, Even Fewer Sales: Musicians have always made their money on the road, not in the studio. It’s well known that the majority album sale profits go to the label, distributor and various other intermediaries and this will get worse as the industry changes to a single-based model. This isn’t the early days where a hot single would push album sales. Rather than buy an album for $15 to hear a good single or two, fans now pick up an individual track for a dollar or less. If they’re not just streaming or pirating it, that is. As profits from music sales go even lower, artists will have to boost income through performances even more in the future.
Social Media Changes: Lost on many industry PR types is that Facebook has changed the marketing game. It used to be that promoting music meant constant shilling. Paying for advertisements and even airplay was the norm as marketers did everything to hit fans over the head with their message, “buy this album!” Social media has now changed the dynamic. Musicians aren’t selling something anymore. Instead, they are establishing relationships, even if they are tenuous and likely false. Musicians will need to relate to fans on social media and share more than just release dates to cultivate a lasting, meaningful following. Being a friend, not a salesperson, will be the key to success.
More Mobile Efforts: With streaming services on the rise, the smartphone will become the music delivery device of choice for the majority of consumers. Labels will spend more time working with Spotify, Pandora, Rhapsody and other streaming services in order to meet the demand of on-the-go listeners. Instant gratification is becoming the norm and more music labels will find themselves focused on forming and promoting working relationships with content delivery services. Old concepts like “street dates,” working with radio program directors and managing relationships with bricks and mortar retailers will become an afterthought.
Stay Agile: The music industry has done far better than the film industry in one major area. When faced with two alternatives, lose sales to piracy or change the business model, they were agile. Sure, it took a little while, but the industry made gains by offering quality tracks, convenience and affordable prices. The industry stayed alive by shifting away from physical sales and embracing digital media. As the music landscape continues to change, the industry will face the constant challenge of evolving with it. To keep making money and stay in business, the music business must embrace change and move with it. They were slow to shift to MP3 and saw major losses because of it. They need to be ready to make the next shift much faster.
Here is a list from comrz.com with the music trends of the future:
Some artists will move away entirely from Album releases; Rihanna is currently the most successful singles artist (47.5 million downloads since 2005), and I believe several artists will move to just releasing singles and then compilations of singles rather than proper albums
YouTube will continue to grow in relevance as a music discovery resource – it is after all the new MTV
Artists will embrace more technology in their music delivery – in a similar vein to Björk’s Biophilia – expect to see more interactive albums and artist / album apps
2012 sees a make or break renaissance for MySpace – but is it too late to take on YouTube, SoundCloud, Spotify and Facebook – which have each taken over a part of MySpace’s key areas of expertise / influence?
We will see more apps – in both internet and tablet-based form – to allow even easier music production / collaboration and remixing, along with simpler, fully-integrated music publishing and distribution platforms
2012 will also see more entrants into the group sharing / interaction category of music – along the same lines as Turntable.fm
A leading electronic musician will employ Kinect-type technology into their core music-making and performance activities
There will arise at least one new significant music-sharing platform, with a very innovative means of revenue generation / sharing which holds enormous appeal for both musicians and fans
Spotify will strengthen its position as the leading music streaming platform – with yet further apps and integrations
Music unit prices – i.e. median album and single prices will be streamlined further in 2012
We will see even more free-to-download mix-tape type albums – DatPiff could become a household name!
When discussing the future of popular music in a global perspective, it’s always intersting to look back. Great song, but how about the video?
“The Lion Sleeps Tonight”, also known as “Wimoweh” and originally as “Mbube”, is a song recorded by Solomon Linda and the Evening Birds for the South African Gallo Record Company in 1939. It was covered internationally by many 1950s pop and folk revival artists, including The Weavers, Jimmy Dorsey, Yma Sumac, Miriam Makeba, and The Kingston Trio. In 1961, it became a number one hit in the U.S. as adapted by the doo-wop group The Tokens. It went on to earn at least 15 million US dollars in royalties from covers and film licensing. Then, in the mid-nineties, it became a pop “supernova” (in the words of South African writer Rian Malan) when Warner Bros. promoted Ace Ventura franchises and licensed to Walt Disney for use in the film The Lion King, its spin-off TV series and live musical, prompting a lawsuit on behalf of the impoverished descendants of Solomon Linda.